On Weather

In yesterday's New York Times was an article that's completely reflects the purpose of this blog. They explain that there are less murders in NYC on rainy days than on sunny days.

Being that they did the analysis for me (thanks, guys!), let's take a look on how an article like this gets written. It's possible the intrepid Times reporters started with a regular review of historical daily murder figures, matched them with weather patterns, and came up with a correlation between days of rain and homicides.

Being that the recent weather in New York City had been so damp in the month of June, it's possible that the reporters (or an editor, or an unrelated analyst) saw the decrease in year-on-year murders from last year's really hot and dry June, brought it to the attention of the right people, and from there the reporters decided to investigate further.

I'm going to venture a guess and go with that second scenario.

Most detailed data analysis is founded in brainstorms. "Hey, what do you say about this?" or "This might be a pattern." Investigations do not always yield measurable results that can be neatly packaged into an article. But this one did.

The best part about this article is that it doesn't just provide a clear explanation proving a thesis. It gives lots of possibilities as to why the analysis might turn up the data they are presenting. This is a big difference. Data doesn't lie, but why it falls into patterns is not always so cut and dry.

On Voting

I recognize the Junior Senator from the Great State of Minnesota.

Al Franken, known better as a comedian and author of books decrying the mental capacity and body shape of a right-wing radio host, has won the terminal legal challenge against Norm Coleman to be seated in the U.S. Senate.

This is an historic decision, not just because of the legal ramifications, but because of the tightness of this race. Over 2.9 million votes were cast, and Franken won by 312. That's a 0.0129% margin.

On Election Night, way back in November, Norm Coleman had the initial lead, with 206 votes over Franken. The usual chaos of a contested election ensued, and the voting lead switched back and forth due to the challenging of certain ballots.

But, let's look in on the data. The two most populous counties in Minnesota (Hennepin & Ramsey) are where most of the vast Minneapolis-St. Paul central urban area exist. In these two counties, covering about 1/3 of all votes cast in this election, Franken won in a virtual landslide with 58.8% of the vote. Yet Coleman had 54.3% of the votes in the other 2/3 of the state.

Coleman's biggest voting margin came in Carver County, a suburb of Minneapolis, with 65.7% of the votes cast in that county. Franken's biggest voting margin came in St. Louis County (Duluth), with 62.7%. Coleman had over 60% of the vote in 11 counties to Franken's 3, but Coleman's landslides happened well outside the population centers.

The fractured race for Senator in Minnesota thusly came down to the political leanings of urban vs. rural populations. This mirrors much of the rest of the country, as ideology somewhat mirrors lifestyle.

(See the outstanding Minneapolis Star-Tribune coverage: http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/senate/)